Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors Celtics (58%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (67%) · Bulls at 42¢ · $660 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
3
Bulls 67%
$659.98
$127.91
32.6¢ → 42¢
+29% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Bullsavg 41¢ | $455.51 | $462.89 | +$11.11 | 58% 41637-30243 (71880) |
 HRTradingCTR | Bullsavg 7¢ | $45.92 | $163.61 | +$117.7 | 53% 4191-3790 (7981) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Celticsavg 58¢ | $34.38 | $33.48 | -$0.9 | 46% 8113-9541 (17654) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.