Bulls vs. Celtics

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (50%) · Celtics at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30

Bulls14¢Celtics86¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$0.03

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 85.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bulls14%

Celtics86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$917.27

Total Shares1,103

Combined PnL+$1.11

Bulls2 traders

Total Value$70.65

Total Shares440

Combined PnL-$1.08

Celtics — 50%Bulls — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Celticsavg 83.6¢	$849.6	$843.6	-$0.93	89% 242-30 (272)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Bullsavg 23.1¢	$114.97	$99.12	-$15.85	38% 365-591 (956)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 83.7¢	$56.86	$56.36	-$0.5
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 23.1¢	$58.12	$42.77	-$15.35
GH ghorrock<$100	Celticsavg 82.9¢	$81.19	$73.68	+$2.04	57% 13342-10199 (23541)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Bullsavg 17¢	$69.94	$65.98	-$1.9	43% 3532-4771 (8303)
poshposhCTR<$100	Bullsavg 14¢	$3.85	$4.67	+$0.82	59% 9676-6661 (16337)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Celtics

Invested

$849.6

Value

$843.6

PnL

-$0.93

Record

89%

242-30 (272)

OddstormARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$114.97

Value

$99.12

PnL

-$15.85

Record

38%

365-591 (956)

Both legs:

Celtics$56.8683.7¢-$0.5

Bulls$58.1223.1¢-$15.35

ghorrock<$100

Celtics

Invested

$81.19

Value

$73.68

PnL

+$2.04

Record

57%

13342-10199 (23541)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$69.94

Value

$65.98

PnL

-$1.9

Record

43%

3532-4771 (8303)

poshposhCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.67

PnL

+$0.82

Record

59%

9676-6661 (16337)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.