Spread: Celtics (-15.5)
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (33%) · Bulls at 54¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
3
Bulls 33%
1 arb excluded
$16.0K
$83.93
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Bullsavg 54¢ | $16.5K | $9.0K | +$82.52 | 54% 16108-13511 (29619) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | Celticsavg 46¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | +$0 | 49% 7211-7358 (14569) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 45¢ | $63.28 | $64.68 | +$1.41 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Celticsavg 45¢ | $58.62 | $58.88 | +$0.26 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 45¢ | $31.5 | $32.2 | +$0.7 | |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 54.9¢ | $27.12 | $26.68 | -$0.44 |
Invested
$16,503.74
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$82.52
Record
54%
16108-13511 (29619)
Invested
$6,879
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
7211-7358 (14569)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$63.28
Value
$64.68
PnL
+$1.41
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Invested
$58.62
Value
$58.88
PnL
+$0.26
Record
57%
26839-19987 (46826)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.