Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (68%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 217.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 32¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
1 arb excluded
$13.7K
$3.1K
52.1¢ → 32¢
-39% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 32%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 52.1¢ | $9.9K | $13.0K | +$3.1K | 54% 17124-14337 (31461) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 52¢ | $260 | $233.46 | +$0.51 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $215.19 | $228.34 | +$13.16 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52¢ | $130 | $171.25 | +$41.25 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $85.19 | $57.09 | -$28.09 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 52¢ | $238.43 | $146.06 | -$58.71 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $23.11 | $22.92 | -$0.19 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $12.67 | $16.69 | +$4.02 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $3.43 | +$0.68 | 47% 2290-2563 (4853) |
Invested
$9,915.75
Value
$13.0K
PnL
+$3.1K
Record
54%
17124-14337 (31461)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$260
Value
$233.46
PnL
+$0.51
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$215.19
Value
$228.34
PnL
+$13.16
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Both legs:
Invested
$238.43
Value
$146.06
PnL
-$58.71
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Invested
$23.11
Value
$22.92
PnL
-$0.19
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
Invested
$12.67
Value
$16.69
PnL
+$4.02
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$3.43
PnL
+$0.68
Record
47%
2290-2563 (4853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.