Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (88%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 215.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 13¢ · $859 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 86%
1 arb excluded
$858.92
-$498.59
48.3¢ → 12.5¢
-74% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 46.9¢ | $824.28 | $316.62 | -$507.67 | 53% 4002-3482 (7484) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $372.81 | $194.13 | -$44.35 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.5¢ | $116.17 | $126.63 | +$10.46 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.7¢ | $82.08 | $67.5 | -$54.81 | |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 56¢ | $140 | $143.75 | +$3.75 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $72.65 | $68.71 | -$3.95 | 48% 783-852 (1635) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 58.9¢ | $49.03 | $61.19 | +$12.16 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $30.8 | $31.62 | +$0.82 | 54% 17124-14337 (31461) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $32.96 | $28.89 | -$4.08 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $13.65 | $14.01 | +$0.37 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
Invested
$824.28
Value
$316.62
PnL
-$507.67
Record
53%
4002-3482 (7484)
Invested
$372.81
Value
$194.13
PnL
-$44.35
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$140
Value
$143.75
PnL
+$3.75
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$72.65
Value
$68.71
PnL
-$3.95
Record
48%
783-852 (1635)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$49.03
Value
$61.19
PnL
+$12.16
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
Invested
$30.8
Value
$31.62
PnL
+$0.82
Record
54%
17124-14337 (31461)
Invested
$32.96
Value
$28.89
PnL
-$4.08
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
Invested
$13.65
Value
$14.01
PnL
+$0.37
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.