Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (85%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 213.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 15¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Over15¢Under85¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$744.65

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 15¢

-69% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Under 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over15%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,807

Combined PnL-$25.08

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,166

Combined PnL-$719.57

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chiefphi	Underavg 50¢	$750	$757.5	+$7.5	51% 102-98 (200)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 50.1¢	$1.4K	$712.54	-$686.34	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Overavg 45¢	$500	$527.78	+$27.78	47% 313-354 (667)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 50.1¢	$472.62	$462.01	-$10.6	48% 783-852 (1635)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$325.12	$294.41	+$13.3	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.2¢	$171.25	$200.83	+$29.81
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.8¢	$109.33	$93.57	-$16.51
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$62.79	$79.8	+$17.01	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 45.4¢	$118.43	$57.42	-$61.01	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 57¢	$56.43	$38.12	-$18.31	63% 8104-4850 (12954)
hammyandcheese<$100	Underavg 58¢	$57.42	$38.12	-$19.31	56% 380-301 (681)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 56¢	$34.72	$34.1	-$0.62	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 37¢	$6.82	$7.1	+$0.28	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 59¢	$2.95	$1.93	-$1.03	53% 6124-5371 (11495)

chiefphi

Under

Invested

$750

Value

$757.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

51%

102-98 (200)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,398.88

Value

$712.54

PnL

-$686.34

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$527.78

PnL

+$27.78

Record

47%

313-354 (667)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$472.62

Value

$462.01

PnL

-$10.6

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$325.12

Value

$294.41

PnL

+$13.3

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Both legs:

Over$171.2548.2¢+$29.81

Under$109.3350.8¢-$16.51

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$62.79

Value

$79.8

PnL

+$17.01

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$118.43

Value

$57.42

PnL

-$61.01

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$56.43

Value

$38.12

PnL

-$18.31

Record

63%

8104-4850 (12954)

hammyandcheese<$100

Under

Invested

$57.42

Value

$38.12

PnL

-$19.31

Record

56%

380-301 (681)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$34.72

Value

$34.1

PnL

-$0.62

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$6.82

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$2.95

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$1.03

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Under 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$499.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

599.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.