Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 211.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 79¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 30

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

-$744.88

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 78.5¢

+58% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares24,664

Combined PnL+$428.78

Over5 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares17,235

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49.7¢	$7.1K	$7.9K	+$803.6	48% 783-852 (1635)
NooseracCTR	Overavg 50¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$122.84	52% 5767-5340 (11107)
TO torta.tech	Underavg 48.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$23.14	63% 8104-4850 (12954)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 52.8¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$972.46	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
AN Anon455	Underavg 49¢	$980	$1.0K	+$40	55% 2862-2296 (5158)
CH chiefphi	Underavg 49¢	$735	$517.5	-$217.5	51% 102-98 (200)
hammyandcheese	Underavg 53¢	$530	$345	-$185	56% 380-301 (681)
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR	Overavg 33¢	$330	$275	-$55	41% 264-375 (639)
NA NatoAlfista	Underavg 51¢	$236.13	$236.15	+$0.02	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
HRTradingARB<$100	Underavg 47.9¢	$193.67	$204.46	+$10.79	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.9¢	$104.21	$157.64	+$53.43
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.5¢	$89.46	$46.82	-$42.64
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 45.7¢	$203.05	$198.17	-$4.88	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.7¢	$154.08	$146.75	-$7.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.8¢	$48.97	$51.41	+$2.44
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176	Underavg 49¢	$100.1	$99.17	-$0.92	53% 6124-5371 (11495)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 44.6¢	$18.74	$30.46	+$11.71	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$50.49	$27.23	-$23.27	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$4.9	-$0.1	50% 7862-7894 (15756)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$7,118.19

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$803.6

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

NooseracCTR

Over

Invested

$6,141.84

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$122.84

Record

52%

5767-5340 (11107)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$2,647.47

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$23.14

Record

63%

8104-4850 (12954)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,029.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$972.46

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$980

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

55%

2862-2296 (5158)

chiefphi

Under

Invested

$735

Value

$517.5

PnL

-$217.5

Record

51%

102-98 (200)

hammyandcheese

Under

Invested

$530

Value

$345

PnL

-$185

Record

56%

380-301 (681)

ENDBOSSLLCCTR

Over

Invested

$330

Value

$275

PnL

-$55

Record

41%

264-375 (639)

NatoAlfista

Under

Invested

$236.13

Value

$236.15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

HRTradingARB<$100

Under

Invested

$193.67

Value

$204.46

PnL

+$10.79

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Both legs:

Under$104.2147.9¢+$53.43

Over$89.4652.5¢-$42.64

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$203.05

Value

$198.17

PnL

-$4.88

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Both legs:

Under$154.0845.7¢-$7.33

Over$48.9753.8¢+$2.44

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176

Under

Invested

$100.1

Value

$99.17

PnL

-$0.92

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$18.74

Value

$30.46

PnL

+$11.71

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.49

Value

$27.23

PnL

-$23.27

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

7862-7894 (15756)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.