Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 209.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 77¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$327.13

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 77¢

+62% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,182

Combined PnL+$470.49

Over2 traders

Total Value$519.23

Total Shares1,481

Combined PnL-$143.36

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Underavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$223.79	52% 5767-5340 (11107)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 45.2¢	$384.02	$569.5	+$185.48	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
latvian.demon	Underavg 66¢	$495	$483.75	-$11.25	54% 682-580 (1262)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 44.2¢	$353.65	$372.44	+$18.79	48% 783-852 (1635)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 54.4¢	$458.1	$298.77	-$159.33	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 32¢	$204.48	$220.46	+$15.98	55% 2862-2296 (5158)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 58.3¢	$233.16	$208.55	+$7.95	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.3¢	$114.3	$118.62	+$4.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.9¢	$86.22	$89.93	+$3.72
HRTrading	Underavg 45.2¢	$157.08	$194.1	+$37.02	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 46¢	$115	$126.25	+$11.25	59% 30405-21110 (51515)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 47¢	$85.07	$83.26	-$1.81	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 40¢	$39.6	$40.59	+$0.99	63% 8104-4850 (12954)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$9.43	$15.71	+$6.27	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.05	-$0.05	53% 6124-5371 (11495)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$2,287.68

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$223.79

Record

52%

5767-5340 (11107)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$384.02

Value

$569.5

PnL

+$185.48

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$495

Value

$483.75

PnL

-$11.25

Record

54%

682-580 (1262)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$353.65

Value

$372.44

PnL

+$18.79

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$458.1

Value

$298.77

PnL

-$159.33

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$204.48

Value

$220.46

PnL

+$15.98

Record

55%

2862-2296 (5158)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$233.16

Value

$208.55

PnL

+$7.95

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Both legs:

Over$114.358.3¢+$4.23

Under$86.2237.9¢+$3.72

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$157.08

Value

$194.1

PnL

+$37.02

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$115

Value

$126.25

PnL

+$11.25

Record

59%

30405-21110 (51515)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$85.07

Value

$83.26

PnL

-$1.81

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$39.6

Value

$40.59

PnL

+$0.99

Record

63%

8104-4850 (12954)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$9.43

Value

$15.71

PnL

+$6.27

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.