Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 205.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 67¢ · $35K held · ended Oct 30

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.5K

Combined PnL

-$836.05

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 67¢

+23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares34,684

Combined PnL-$147.97

Under7 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares35,834

Combined PnL-$688.08

Over — 46%Under — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Overavg 45¢	$15.2K	$15.0K	-$168.36	52% 5767-5340 (11107)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 54.9¢	$15.1K	$14.3K	-$795.68	48% 783-852 (1635)
LU luckycat888888	Underavg 55¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$37.5	51% 51-49 (100)
latvian.demonCTR	Overavg 45.7¢	$342.91	$360	+$17.09	54% 682-580 (1262)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 42.7¢	$174.89	$258.3	+$83.41	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 73.4¢	$195.91	$185.41	-$10.5	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
└ Over leg	Overavg 73.4¢	$130.67	$127.27	-$3.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 32¢	$65.24	$58.14	-$7.1
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 27.8¢	$87.06	$89.29	+$2.22	55% 2862-2296 (5158)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 67¢	$66.33	$76.73	+$10.4	59% 30405-21110 (51515)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 55.1¢	$59.83	$53.24	-$6.59	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 38¢	$37.24	$22.05	-$15.19	63% 8104-4850 (12954)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 44.9¢	$15.7	$16.27	+$0.57	50% 7862-7894 (15756)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$12.26	$11.18	-$1.08	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$6.45	$6.98	+$0.53	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2	$1.13	-$0.88	53% 6124-5371 (11495)

NooseracCTR

Over

Invested

$15,152.74

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$168.36

Record

52%

5767-5340 (11107)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$15,093.11

Value

$14.3K

PnL

-$795.68

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

luckycat888888

Under

Invested

$4,124.99

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$37.5

Record

51%

51-49 (100)

latvian.demonCTR

Over

Invested

$342.91

Value

$360

PnL

+$17.09

Record

54%

682-580 (1262)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$174.89

Value

$258.3

PnL

+$83.41

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$195.91

Value

$185.41

PnL

-$10.5

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Both legs:

Over$130.6773.4¢-$3.4

Under$65.2432¢-$7.1

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$87.06

Value

$89.29

PnL

+$2.22

Record

55%

2862-2296 (5158)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.33

Value

$76.73

PnL

+$10.4

Record

59%

30405-21110 (51515)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.83

Value

$53.24

PnL

-$6.59

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$37.24

Value

$22.05

PnL

-$15.19

Record

63%

8104-4850 (12954)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.7

Value

$16.27

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

7862-7894 (15756)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.26

Value

$11.18

PnL

-$1.08

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.98

PnL

+$0.53

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.88

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.