Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Hornets (60%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Wizards (-3.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (80%) · Wizards at 41¢ · $176 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
5
Wizards 80%
$176.35
-$2.77
41.3¢ → 40.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 41¢ | $86.92 | $89.04 | +$2.12 | 50% 6968-6968 (13936) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Hornetsavg 57¢ | $54.23 | $55.18 | +$0.95 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 42.5¢ | $27.62 | $26.65 | -$0.97 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 41¢ | $3.69 | $3.78 | +$0.09 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Wizardsavg 42¢ | $209.99 | $1.7 | -$4.96 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
Invested
$86.92
Value
$89.04
PnL
+$2.12
Record
50%
6968-6968 (13936)
Invested
$54.23
Value
$55.18
PnL
+$0.95
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$27.62
Value
$26.65
PnL
-$0.97
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.69
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$209.99
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$4.96
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.