Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Hornets (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Wizards (-2.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (80%) · Wizards at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
5
Wizards 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$96.95
44.1¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Wizardsavg 44.2¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$83.14 | 54% 17115-14330 (31445) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Hornetsavg 54.6¢ | $572.83 | $465.56 | +$3.43 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 54.6¢ | $297.23 | $307.65 | +$9.22 | |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 45.3¢ | $164.51 | $157.91 | -$5.8 | |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Wizardsavg 44¢ | $371.79 | $359.12 | -$12.67 | 54% 3325-2874 (6199) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 44¢ | $21.65 | $20.91 | -$0.74 | 53% 2145-1905 (4050) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 44¢ | $14.25 | $13.76 | -$0.49 | 57% 13599-10421 (24020) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Hornetsavg 56¢ | $10.08 | $10.17 | +$0.09 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
Invested
$2,191.01
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$83.14
Record
54%
17115-14330 (31445)
Invested
$572.83
Value
$465.56
PnL
+$3.43
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Both legs:
Invested
$371.79
Value
$359.12
PnL
-$12.67
Record
54%
3325-2874 (6199)
Invested
$21.65
Value
$20.91
PnL
-$0.74
Record
53%
2145-1905 (4050)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$13.76
PnL
-$0.49
Record
57%
13599-10421 (24020)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$10.17
PnL
+$0.09
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.