Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Hornets (52%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Wizards (-1.5)

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (100%) · Wizards at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30

Wizards49¢Hornets51¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$85.83

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 48.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Wizards49%

Hornets52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,149

Combined PnL-$85.83

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Wizardsavg 48.4¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$62.46	54% 17115-14329 (31444)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 47.8¢	$1.2K	$773.12	+$16.23	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 47.8¢	$394.33	$391.78	+$0.51
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 50.4¢	$366.15	$381.33	+$15.72
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Wizardsavg 49¢	$472.25	$457.79	-$14.46	53% 5576-4935 (10511)
FF ff3364CTR	Wizardsavg 50¢	$346.5	$346.5	+$0	50% 795-799 (1594)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Wizardsavg 47.9¢	$137.08	$136.08	-$1	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
VeryLucky888CTR	Wizardsavg 49¢	$743.59	$105.45	-$5.96	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 48.6¢	$51.98	$50.82	-$1.15	58% 28411-20971 (49382)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 48.4¢	$32.23	$24.86	-$0.54	57% 13599-10421 (24020)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 48¢	$24.8	$24.54	-$0.26	38% 377-619 (996)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Wizards

Invested

$3,279.45

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$62.46

Record

54%

17115-14329 (31444)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,161.84

Value

$773.12

PnL

+$16.23

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

Both legs:

Wizards$394.3347.8¢+$0.51

Hornets$366.1550.4¢+$15.72

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Wizards

Invested

$472.25

Value

$457.79

PnL

-$14.46

Record

53%

5576-4935 (10511)

ff3364CTR

Wizards

Invested

$346.5

Value

$346.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

795-799 (1594)

HerdoniaCTR

Wizards

Invested

$137.08

Value

$136.08

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

VeryLucky888CTR

Wizards

Invested

$743.59

Value

$105.45

PnL

-$5.96

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$51.98

Value

$50.82

PnL

-$1.15

Record

58%

28411-20971 (49382)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$32.23

Value

$24.86

PnL

-$0.54

Record

57%

13599-10421 (24020)

OddstormCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$24.8

Value

$24.54

PnL

-$0.26

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.