Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Wizards (92%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hornets (-5.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (60%) · Hornets at 8.0¢ · $732 held · ended Oct 30

Hornets8¢Wizards92¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 60%

Total Value

$731.72

Combined PnL

-$341.35

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 8¢

-83% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets8%

Wizards92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets3 traders

Total Value$461.41

Total Shares2,185

Combined PnL-$352.04

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$270.31

Total Shares375

Combined PnL+$10.69

Hornets — 60%Wizards — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455CTR	Hornetsavg 48¢	$732.32	$402.35	-$329.97	55% 2862-2296 (5158)
38 38791873984189	Wizardsavg 68.9¢	$171.69	$178.15	+$6.46	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
TA takeormake<$100	Wizardsavg 58.4¢	$87.93	$92.16	+$4.23	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 48¢	$65.49	$49.12	-$16.37	48% 783-852 (1635)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 32.2¢	$15.64	$9.94	-$5.7	52% 4099-3733 (7832)

Anon455CTR

Hornets

Invested

$732.32

Value

$402.35

PnL

-$329.97

Record

55%

2862-2296 (5158)

38791873984189

Wizards

Invested

$171.69

Value

$178.15

PnL

+$6.46

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

takeormake<$100

Wizards

Invested

$87.93

Value

$92.16

PnL

+$4.23

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$65.49

Value

$49.12

PnL

-$16.37

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$15.64

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$5.7

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.