Spread: Hornets (-4.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (75%) · Wizards at 57¢ · $105 held · ended Oct 30

Hornets43¢Wizards57¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 75%

Total Value

$105.48

Combined PnL

-$24.66

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 57¢

-19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets43%

Wizards57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards3 traders

Total Value$98.38

Total Shares158

Combined PnL-$21.56

Hornets1 trader

Total Value$7.1

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$3.1

Wizards — 75%Hornets — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189<$100	Wizardsavg 63.7¢	$72.03	$64.41	-$7.62	46% 8113-9541 (17654)
HRTrading<$100	Wizardsavg 90.3¢	$44.26	$31.12	-$13.14	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 51¢	$20	$7.1	-$3.1	48% 788-869 (1657)
AN Anon455<$100	Wizardsavg 73¢	$3.65	$2.85	-$0.8	55% 2868-2301 (5169)

38791873984189<$100

Wizards

Invested

$72.03

Value

$64.41

PnL

-$7.62

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

HRTrading<$100

Wizards

Invested

$44.26

Value

$31.12

PnL

-$13.14

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$20

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$3.1

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

Anon455<$100

Wizards

Invested

$3.65

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.8

Record

55%

2868-2301 (5169)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.