Spread: Hornets (-3.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (78%) · Wizards at 87¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Hornets14¢Wizards86¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$95.95

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 86.5¢

+56% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets14%

Wizards87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$329.49

Total Shares775

Combined PnL+$5.18

Wizards7 traders

Total Value$614.62

Total Shares907

Combined PnL+$90.77

Hornets — 22%Wizards — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Hornetsavg 55¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$219.44	48% 783-852 (1635)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 55¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$254.9
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$532.52	$567.97	+$35.46
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 41.8¢	$303.34	$308.27	+$4.93	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
TA takeormake	Wizardsavg 53.8¢	$167.44	$227.03	+$59.59	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
RN1ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 58¢	$182.53	$182.65	+$0.12	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 58¢	$145	$143.75	-$1.25
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 41¢	$37.53	$38.9	+$1.37
38 38791873984189	Wizardsavg 58¢	$144.29	$146.9	+$2.61	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
NA NatoAlfista	Wizardsavg 59¢	$100.3	$97.75	-$2.55	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Wizardsavg 52¢	$50.96	$71.54	+$20.58	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
HRTrading<$100	Wizardsavg 45.8¢	$37.1	$47.3	+$10.2	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 42¢	$20.97	$21.22	+$0.25	38% 383-624 (1007)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Wizardsavg 58¢	$19.63	$19.85	+$0.22	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Wizardsavg 58¢	$2.9	$4.25	+$0.13	47% 2290-2563 (4853)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1,934.47

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$219.44

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

Both legs:

Hornets$1,401.9555¢-$254.9

Wizards$532.5251.6¢+$35.46

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$303.34

Value

$308.27

PnL

+$4.93

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

takeormake

Wizards

Invested

$167.44

Value

$227.03

PnL

+$59.59

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

RN1ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$182.53

Value

$182.65

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

Both legs:

Wizards$14558¢-$1.25

Hornets$37.5341¢+$1.37

38791873984189

Wizards

Invested

$144.29

Value

$146.9

PnL

+$2.61

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

NatoAlfista

Wizards

Invested

$100.3

Value

$97.75

PnL

-$2.55

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

justaluckydude<$100

Wizards

Invested

$50.96

Value

$71.54

PnL

+$20.58

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

HRTrading<$100

Wizards

Invested

$37.1

Value

$47.3

PnL

+$10.2

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

OddstormCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$20.97

Value

$21.22

PnL

+$0.25

Record

38%

383-624 (1007)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Wizards

Invested

$19.63

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

ameisgoat11<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.9

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

2290-2563 (4853)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.