Spread: Hornets (-2.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (78%) · Wizards at 52¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 30

Hornets48¢Wizards52¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$5.44

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 52¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets48%

Wizards52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards7 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares13,622

Combined PnL+$5.69

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$365.85

Total Shares813

Combined PnL-$0.25

Wizards — 78%Hornets — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Wizardsavg 55¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$0	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Hornetsavg 45¢	$354.6	$354.6	-$0	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
RN1	Wizardsavg 56¢	$280	$275	-$5	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hornetsavg 48.9¢	$183.4	$179.54	-$3.86	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 48.9¢	$134.89	$125.58	-$9.31
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 49¢	$48.51	$53.96	+$5.45
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Wizardsavg 49¢	$146.1	$161.08	+$14.98	48% 783-852 (1635)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Wizardsavg 55¢	$55.11	$55.11	+$0.5	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
38 38791873984189<$100	Wizardsavg 54.2¢	$35.86	$33.07	-$2.79	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Wizardsavg 54.7¢	$32.8	$31.2	-$1.6	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 46¢	$11.5	$11.25	-$0.25	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
0xheavy888<$100	Wizardsavg 57¢	$11.4	$11	-$0.4	56% 7074-5669 (12743)

HomeRunHazard

Wizards

Invested

$6,930

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

SunlineTickerCTR

Hornets

Invested

$354.6

Value

$354.6

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

RN1

Wizards

Invested

$280

Value

$275

PnL

-$5

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

takeormakeARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$183.4

Value

$179.54

PnL

-$3.86

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

Both legs:

Hornets$134.8948.9¢-$9.31

Wizards$48.5149¢+$5.45

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Wizards

Invested

$146.1

Value

$161.08

PnL

+$14.98

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

NatoAlfista<$100

Wizards

Invested

$55.11

Value

$55.11

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

38791873984189<$100

Wizards

Invested

$35.86

Value

$33.07

PnL

-$2.79

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Wizards

Invested

$32.8

Value

$31.2

PnL

-$1.6

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

0xheavy888<$100

Wizards

Invested

$11.4

Value

$11

PnL

-$0.4

Record

56%

7074-5669 (12743)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.