Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Wizards (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Hornets (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (40%) · Hornets at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Hornets
5
Hornets 40%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$4.08
47¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidHornets at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AY ay118CTR | Hornetsavg 47¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$0 | 50% 19-19 (38) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Wizardsavg 54.9¢ | $539.2 | $520.73 | +$6.09 | 53% 387-337 (724) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Wizardsavg 54.3¢ | $383.43 | $381.27 | -$2.16 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 54.3¢ | $203.53 | $198.75 | -$4.78 | |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 46.3¢ | $179.9 | $182.52 | +$2.62 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Wizardsavg 53¢ | $77.91 | $77.91 | +$0 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Wizardsavg 54.9¢ | $57.53 | $56.67 | -$1.76 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 47¢ | $23.5 | $23.5 | -$0.25 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
Invested
$2,043.87
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
19-19 (38)
Invested
$539.2
Value
$520.73
PnL
+$6.09
Record
53%
387-337 (724)
Invested
$383.43
Value
$381.27
PnL
-$2.16
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$77.91
Value
$77.91
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
Invested
$57.53
Value
$56.67
PnL
-$1.76
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$23.5
PnL
-$0.25
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.