Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Wizards (54%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Wizards

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (60%) · Hornets at 47¢ · $44K held · ends Oct 30

Hornets47¢Wizards53¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$44.2K

Combined PnL

-$50.15

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 46.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets47%

Wizards54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$19.0K

Total Shares36,159

Combined PnL+$205.59

Hornets6 traders

Total Value$23.5K

Total Shares49,712

Combined PnL-$255.74

Wizards — 40%Hornets — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHornets 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Wizardsavg 52¢	$15.6K	$15.7K	+$150	54% 588-507 (1095)
HE hewhodoesitCTR	Hornetsavg 48¢	$14.4K	$14.3K	-$150	— 7-4 (11)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 46.9¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$24.81	54% 17113-14326 (31439)
VeryLucky888CTR	Hornetsavg 47.6¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$30	58% 41471-30089 (71560)
BU bubananaCTR	Hornetsavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$19.4	45% 66-81 (147)
TA takeormakeCTR	Hornetsavg 48.4¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$34.32	53% 4002-3481 (7483)
PE peepeepooppoop	Wizardsavg 50.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$52.5	52% 2037-1863 (3900)
AA aaabbb	Wizardsavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10	50% 443-444 (887)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Hornetsavg 48.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0.99	43% 3555-4792 (8347)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 48.9¢	$541.85	$526.33	-$15.52
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$504.75	$519.3	+$14.53
RollAwayTheDew	Wizardsavg 51.7¢	$849.36	$870.65	+$13.09	52% 374-339 (713)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Hornetsavg 47.6¢	$603.25	$584.61	-$7.3	38% 375-618 (993)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 47.6¢	$469.57	$463.41	-$6.16
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 52.9¢	$120.98	$121.2	-$1.14
38 38791873984189CTR	Hornetsavg 46.6¢	$329.03	$331.82	+$2.79	46% 7894-9296 (17190)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$56.14	$56.36	+$0.16	58% 28402-20964 (49366)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$32.01	$32.86	+$0.54
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 48.3¢	$24.13	$23.5	-$0.38

monkeymashingkeyboard

Wizards

Invested

$15,599.95

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$150

Record

54%

588-507 (1095)

hewhodoesitCTR

Hornets

Invested

$14,400

Value

$14.3K

PnL

-$150

Record

—

7-4 (11)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$3,116.57

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$24.81

Record

54%

17113-14326 (31439)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hornets

Invested

$2,286

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$30

Record

58%

41471-30089 (71560)

bubananaCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,862.4

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$19.4

Record

45%

66-81 (147)

takeormakeCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,780.71

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$34.32

Record

53%

4002-3481 (7483)

peepeepooppoop

Wizards

Invested

$1,268.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$52.5

Record

52%

2037-1863 (3900)

aaabbb

Wizards

Invested

$1,079.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

443-444 (887)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1,046.62

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0.99

Record

43%

3555-4792 (8347)

Both legs:

Hornets$541.8548.9¢-$15.52

Wizards$504.7551¢+$14.53

RollAwayTheDew

Wizards

Invested

$849.36

Value

$870.65

PnL

+$13.09

Record

52%

374-339 (713)

OddstormARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$603.25

Value

$584.61

PnL

-$7.3

Record

38%

375-618 (993)

Both legs:

Hornets$469.5747.6¢-$6.16

Wizards$120.9852.9¢-$1.14

38791873984189CTR

Hornets

Invested

$329.03

Value

$331.82

PnL

+$2.79

Record

46%

7894-9296 (17190)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$56.14

Value

$56.36

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

28402-20964 (49366)

Both legs:

Wizards$32.0151.6¢+$0.54

Hornets$24.1348.3¢-$0.38

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHornets 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.