Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Suns (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Suns (-5.5)
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (67%) · Hornets at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Hornets
9
Hornets 67%
$1.6K
$5.9
45.4¢ → 46.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidHornets at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+24 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Sunsavg 54¢ | $707.47 | $700.92 | -$6.55 | 42% 16-22 (38) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Hornetsavg 46¢ | $281.58 | $281.58 | +$0 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Hornetsavg 45¢ | $225 | $230 | +$5 | 52% 761-712 (1473) |
NM NM-PCTR | Hornetsavg 45¢ | $157.5 | $161 | +$3.5 | 59% 3534-2417 (5951) |
GC GC-PCTR | Hornetsavg 45.3¢ | $120.06 | $123.3 | +$3.23 | 26% 152-428 (580) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 46¢ | $39.96 | $40.39 | +$0.43 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 46¢ | $11.5 | $11.63 | +$0.13 | 49% 1072-1133 (2205) |
SU suntori<$100 | Sunsavg 53¢ | $4.76 | $4.8 | +$0.04 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Sunsavg 52¢ | $3.9 | $4.01 | +$0.11 | 54% 274-237 (511) |
Invested
$707.47
Value
$700.92
PnL
-$6.55
Record
42%
16-22 (38)
Invested
$281.58
Value
$281.58
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$225
Value
$230
PnL
+$5
Record
52%
761-712 (1473)
Invested
$157.5
Value
$161
PnL
+$3.5
Record
59%
3534-2417 (5951)
Invested
$120.06
Value
$123.3
PnL
+$3.23
Record
26%
152-428 (580)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$40.39
PnL
+$0.43
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$0.13
Record
49%
1072-1133 (2205)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.04
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
$4.01
PnL
+$0.11
Record
54%
274-237 (511)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.