Hornets vs. Suns: 1H O/U 107.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 75%
$1.1K
$7.77
50.6¢ → 51.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Overavg 51.2¢ | $483.79 | $486.16 | +$2.37 | 68% 2613-1210 (3823) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $361.38 | $361.38 | +$0 | 59% 470-327 (797) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 51¢ | $141.16 | $108.34 | +$1.17 | 47% 2408-2683 (5091) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $78.5 | $80.04 | +$1.54 | 48% 703-766 (1469) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Underavg 57.6¢ | $44.34 | $36.96 | -$7.38 | 29% 113-278 (391) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 44.7¢ | $29.48 | $34.25 | +$4.78 | 45% 178-222 (400) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $21 | $26 | +$5 | 53% 6404-5641 (12045) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 50.5¢ | $10.11 | $10.4 | +$0.29 | 49% 1103-1157 (2260) |
Invested
$483.79
Value
$486.16
PnL
+$2.37
Record
68%
2613-1210 (3823)
Invested
$361.38
Value
$361.38
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
470-327 (797)
Invested
$141.16
Value
$108.34
PnL
+$1.17
Record
47%
2408-2683 (5091)
poshposh<$100Invested
$78.5
Value
$80.04
PnL
+$1.54
Record
48%
703-766 (1469)
Invested
$44.34
Value
$36.96
PnL
-$7.38
Record
29%
113-278 (391)
Invested
$29.48
Value
$34.25
PnL
+$4.78
Record
45%
178-222 (400)
Invested
$21
Value
$26
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
6404-5641 (12045)
Invested
$10.11
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$0.29
Record
49%
1103-1157 (2260)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.