Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 213.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $723 held · ends Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$723.1

Combined PnL

-$19.81

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 49.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$702.04

Total Shares1,275

Combined PnL-$20.41

Under3 traders

Total Value$21.05

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$0.6

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 52.5¢	$515.03	$485.87	-$22.29	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49¢	$210.7	$212.85	+$2.15	50% 751-741 (1492)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 48¢	$9.86	$10.27	+$0.41	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
0X 0x0A77exmm<$100	Underavg 50¢	$9.77	$9.87	+$0.1	45% 74-90 (164)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$3.59	$3.32	-$0.27	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 45¢	$0.82	$0.91	+$0.09	56% 686-535 (1221)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$515.03

Value

$485.87

PnL

-$22.29

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$210.7

Value

$212.85

PnL

+$2.15

Record

50%

751-741 (1492)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$9.86

Value

$10.27

PnL

+$0.41

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

0x0A77exmm<$100

Under

Invested

$9.77

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.1

Record

45%

74-90 (164)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.59

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$0.27

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.09

Record

56%

686-535 (1221)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.