Spread: Hornets (-1.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (20%) · Clippers at 53¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Hornets48¢Clippers52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 20%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$51.11

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets48%

Clippers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers1 trader

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,439

Combined PnL-$54.39

Hornets4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,433

Combined PnL+$3.28

Clippers — 20%Hornets — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Clippersavg 53¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$54.39	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 47¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$0	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hornetsavg 47¢	$196.35	$153.66	+$2.08	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 47¢	$72.07	$72.83	+$0.77	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 47¢	$40.84	$41.27	+$0.43	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Clippers

Invested

$2,882.57

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$54.39

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$2,304.77

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

38791873984189CTR

Hornets

Invested

$196.35

Value

$153.66

PnL

+$2.08

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

VenusianCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$72.07

Value

$72.83

PnL

+$0.77

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$40.84

Value

$41.27

PnL

+$0.43

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.