Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$20.78

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 49.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,313

Combined PnL+$117.33

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,999

Combined PnL-$96.55

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$96.87	54% 16846-14132 (30978)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Underavg 51.7¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$84.65	90% 236-25 (261)
TA takeormake	Underavg 51.4¢	$361.35	$351.8	-$9.56	54% 3813-3274 (7087)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$234.45	$244.22	+$9.77	53% 5495-4840 (10335)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$242.5	$215.74	+$7.5	58% 40728-29460 (70188)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 49¢	$136.71	$139.5	+$2.79	49% 18584-19002 (37586)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 51¢	$116.34	$114.06	-$2.28	52% 308-285 (593)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$45.99	$46	+$0.01	58% 28094-20712 (48806)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.6	$10	+$0.4	56% 6904-5522 (12426)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51¢	$3.43	$3.36	-$0.07	57% 13102-9987 (23089)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,979.69

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$96.87

Record

54%

16846-14132 (30978)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Under

Invested

$2,584.65

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$84.65

Record

90%

236-25 (261)

takeormake

Under

Invested

$361.35

Value

$351.8

PnL

-$9.56

Record

54%

3813-3274 (7087)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$234.45

Value

$244.22

PnL

+$9.77

Record

53%

5495-4840 (10335)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$242.5

Value

$215.74

PnL

+$7.5

Record

58%

40728-29460 (70188)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$136.71

Value

$139.5

PnL

+$2.79

Record

49%

18584-19002 (37586)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$116.34

Value

$114.06

PnL

-$2.28

Record

52%

308-285 (593)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$45.99

Value

$46

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

28094-20712 (48806)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

6904-5522 (12426)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.43

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

13102-9987 (23089)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.