Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$544.9
49.9¢ → 77¢
+54% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude | Underavg 50¢ | $988.5 | $1.8K | +$543.68 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $518.63 | $540.02 | +$23.1 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51¢ | $284.17 | $417.9 | +$147.66 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48¢ | $234.46 | $122.12 | -$124.56 | |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $21.15 | $23.4 | +$2.48 | 50% 3721-3695 (7416) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.6 | +$0.23 | 50% 6821-6834 (13655) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $5 | $1.13 | -$1.48 | 47% 2102-2381 (4483) |
Invested
$988.5
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$543.68
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
Invested
$518.63
Value
$540.02
PnL
+$23.1
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.15
Value
$23.4
PnL
+$2.48
Record
50%
3721-3695 (7416)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
6821-6834 (13655)
Invested
$5
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$1.48
Record
47%
2102-2381 (4483)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.