Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$81.69

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 53¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,119

Combined PnL+$81.69

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 50.7¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$176.99	49% 559-583 (1142)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.7¢	$904.62	$945.89	+$362.51
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.3¢	$464.81	$452.64	-$185.53
GA gagarin59	Underavg 49.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$80.29	52% 657-608 (1265)
HRTradingARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$56.28	$56.2	-$0.08	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$34.98	$31.02	-$3.96
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.8¢	$21.3	$25.18	+$3.88
MI mishipolis<$100	Underavg 77¢	$8.6	$10	+$1.4	50% 4446-4371 (8817)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,048.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$176.99

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Both legs:

Under$904.6250.7¢+$362.51

Over$464.8148.3¢-$185.53

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$1,037.34

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$80.29

Record

52%

657-608 (1265)

HRTradingARB<$100

Over

Invested

$56.28

Value

$56.2

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Both legs:

Over$34.9853¢-$3.96

Under$21.344.8¢+$3.88

mishipolis<$100

Under

Invested

$8.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

4446-4371 (8817)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.