Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$253.29

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 72.5¢

+41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,531

Combined PnL+$312.17

Over2 traders

Total Value$209.85

Total Shares861

Combined PnL-$58.88

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.8¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$288.69	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 28.7¢	$215.23	$168.6	-$46.62	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
BU BullishBarb<$100	Underavg 52¢	$57.85	$85.11	+$27.26	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$53.5	$41.24	-$12.26	49% 559-583 (1142)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 71.2¢	$32.76	$28.98	-$3.78	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,206.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$288.69

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$215.23

Value

$168.6

PnL

-$46.62

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

BullishBarb<$100

Under

Invested

$57.85

Value

$85.11

PnL

+$27.26

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.5

Value

$41.24

PnL

-$12.26

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$32.76

Value

$28.98

PnL

-$3.78

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.