Spread: Pistons (-8.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (40%) · Hornets at 55¢ · $930 held · ends Oct 28

Pistons46¢Hornets54¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$930.19

Combined PnL

$4.67

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons46%

Hornets55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$411.95

Total Shares770

Combined PnL-$1.55

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$291.24

Total Shares627

Combined PnL+$6.22

Hornets — 40%Pistons — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPistons 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Hornetsavg 53.7¢	$402.5	$401.25	-$1.25	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Pistonsavg 46¢	$224.71	$227	+$2.29	38% 848-1408 (2256)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 46¢	$115	$116.25	+$1.25
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 53¢	$109.71	$110.75	+$1.04
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pistonsavg 45.7¢	$178.46	$181.69	+$3.23	54% 16871-14147 (31018)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 45¢	$93.76	$96.89	+$3.13	51% 32-31 (63)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 46¢	$12.8	$12.66	-$0.14	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
0xheavy888<$100	Hornetsavg 55¢	$11	$10.7	-$0.3	56% 6915-5530 (12445)

RN1

Hornets

Invested

$402.5

Value

$401.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$224.71

Value

$227

PnL

+$2.29

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

Both legs:

Pistons$11546¢+$1.25

Hornets$109.7153¢+$1.04

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pistons

Invested

$178.46

Value

$181.69

PnL

+$3.23

Record

54%

16871-14147 (31018)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$93.76

Value

$96.89

PnL

+$3.13

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$12.8

Value

$12.66

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

0xheavy888<$100

Hornets

Invested

$11

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

6915-5530 (12445)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPistons 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.