Spread: Pistons (-7.5)
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (100%) · Hornets at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Hornets
7
Hornets 100%
$3.0K
-$153.35
55¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidHornets at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Hornetsavg 55¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$114.01 | 54% 16861-14140 (31001) |
SU SunlineTicker | Hornetsavg 55¢ | $852.69 | $860.44 | +$7.75 | 62% 4020-2462 (6482) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Hornetsavg 55¢ | $354.98 | $329.16 | -$25.82 | 53% 5498-4842 (10340) |
 VeryLucky888 | Hornetsavg 55¢ | $312.91 | $255 | -$20 | 58% 40740-29467 (70207) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Hornetsavg 54.5¢ | $30 | $29.37 | -$0.63 | 58% 28114-20722 (48836) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Hornetsavg 52.4¢ | $25.16 | $24.48 | -$0.68 | 50% 6811-6825 (13636) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Hornetsavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.78 | +$0.03 | 47% 2037-2342 (4379) |
Invested
$1,581.39
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$114.01
Record
54%
16861-14140 (31001)
Invested
$852.69
Value
$860.44
PnL
+$7.75
Record
62%
4020-2462 (6482)
Invested
$354.98
Value
$329.16
PnL
-$25.82
Record
53%
5498-4842 (10340)
VeryLucky888Invested
$312.91
Value
$255
PnL
-$20
Record
58%
40740-29467 (70207)
Invested
$30
Value
$29.37
PnL
-$0.63
Record
58%
28114-20722 (48836)
Invested
$25.16
Value
$24.48
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
6811-6825 (13636)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
2037-2342 (4379)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.