Spread: Pistons (-5.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (25%) · Pistons at 59¢ · $39K held · ends Oct 28

Pistons59¢Hornets41¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.2K

Combined PnL

-$67.41

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 58.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons59%

Hornets42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons2 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares35,242

Combined PnL-$30.2

Hornets6 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares24,167

Combined PnL-$37.21

Pistons — 25%Hornets — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePistons 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHornets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHornets 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Pistonsavg 57.6¢	$20.2K	$20.2K	-$30.1	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Hornetsavg 41.9¢	$8.6K	$8.6K	+$176.64	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 41.9¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$61.83
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 56.9¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$114.81
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Hornetsavg 43¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$50	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
WO woshikd99CTR	Hornetsavg 42.5¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0.09	50% 31-31 (62)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Hornetsavg 42.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$1.81	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
BA BayupatiCTR	Hornetsavg 42¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$17.8	51% 193-189 (382)
VeryLucky888CTR	Hornetsavg 42.5¢	$822.55	$180.39	-$7.17	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Pistonsavg 57.6¢	$46.1	$46	-$0.1	54% 2922-2509 (5431)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 42¢	$21.63	$21.89	+$0.26	51% 6452-6117 (12569)

mooseborzoii

Pistons

Invested

$20,248.46

Value

$20.2K

PnL

-$30.1

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$8,565.54

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$176.64

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

Both legs:

Hornets$4,406.541.9¢+$61.83

Pistons$4,159.0356.9¢+$114.81

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Hornets

Invested

$4,300

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

woshikd99CTR

Hornets

Invested

$2,551.61

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

SunlineTickerCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,747.9

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.81

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

BayupatiCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,495.15

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$17.8

Record

51%

193-189 (382)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hornets

Invested

$822.55

Value

$180.39

PnL

-$7.17

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Pistons

Invested

$46.1

Value

$46

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

2922-2509 (5431)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$21.63

Value

$21.89

PnL

+$0.26

Record

51%

6452-6117 (12569)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePistons 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHornets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHornets 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.