Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Pistons (76%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pistons (-3.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (30%) · Hornets at 25¢ · $35K held · ended Oct 28

Pistons76¢Hornets24¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 30%

Total Value

$35.4K

Combined PnL

-$268.14

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 24.5¢

-45% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons76%

Hornets25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets3 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares49,245

Combined PnL-$251.28

Pistons7 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares23,532

Combined PnL-$16.86

Hornets — 30%Pistons — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hornetsavg 44.2¢	$19.5K	$19.7K	+$31.26	49% 559-583 (1142)
Nooserac	Pistonsavg 56¢	$10.8K	$10.7K	-$96.59	52% 5722-5285 (11007)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 48.3¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$211.27	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
AN Anon455	Pistonsavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$26.44	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
TA takeormake	Pistonsavg 64.1¢	$506.99	$581.63	+$74.63	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
hammyandcheese	Pistonsavg 57¢	$570	$555	-$15	57% 360-276 (636)
SE seeeeeeb	Pistonsavg 45¢	$90	$129	+$39	51% 675-657 (1332)
PA pauleta23<$100	Pistonsavg 46.1¢	$90	$97.67	+$7.67	67% 23140-11541 (34681)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Hornetsavg 55¢	$132.92	$61.65	-$71.27	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
HRTrading<$100	Pistonsavg 50.3¢	$23.64	$23.5	-$0.14	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hornets

Invested

$19,506.78

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$31.26

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Nooserac

Pistons

Invested

$10,817.65

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$96.59

Record

52%

5722-5285 (11007)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$2,694.94

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$211.27

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Anon455

Pistons

Invested

$1,130.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$26.44

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

takeormake

Pistons

Invested

$506.99

Value

$581.63

PnL

+$74.63

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

hammyandcheese

Pistons

Invested

$570

Value

$555

PnL

-$15

Record

57%

360-276 (636)

seeeeeeb

Pistons

Invested

$90

Value

$129

PnL

+$39

Record

51%

675-657 (1332)

pauleta23<$100

Pistons

Invested

$90

Value

$97.67

PnL

+$7.67

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

BullishBarbCTR

Hornets

Invested

$132.92

Value

$61.65

PnL

-$71.27

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

HRTrading<$100

Pistons

Invested

$23.64

Value

$23.5

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.