Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Pistons (74%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (80%) · Hornets at 26¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Hornets
5
Hornets 80%
2 arb excluded
$5.6K
$9.55
47.1¢ → 26¢
-45% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHornets at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Hornetsavg 46.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$6.75 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Pistonsavg 49.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$126.21 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
GA gagarin59CTR | Hornetsavg 48¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$50.78 | 52% 657-608 (1265) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Pistonsavg 64¢ | $677.21 | $611.95 | -$65.26 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
| └ Pistons leg | Pistonsavg 64¢ | $417.68 | $352.42 | -$65.26 | |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 46¢ | $259.53 | $259.53 | +$0 | |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Pistonsavg 56.8¢ | $501.99 | $467.52 | -$34.47 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
| └ Pistons leg | Pistonsavg 56.8¢ | $264.05 | $360.57 | +$96.52 | |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 50.1¢ | $237.94 | $106.95 | -$130.98 | |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Hornetsavg 56.4¢ | $113.24 | $54.2 | -$59.04 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 49¢ | $1.47 | $1.38 | -$0.09 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$1,904.38
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$6.75
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$1,276.21
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$126.21
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$1,214.19
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$50.78
Record
52%
657-608 (1265)
Invested
$677.21
Value
$611.95
PnL
-$65.26
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Both legs:
Invested
$501.99
Value
$467.52
PnL
-$34.47
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Both legs:
Invested
$113.24
Value
$54.2
PnL
-$59.04
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.47
Value
$1.38
PnL
-$0.09
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.