Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Pistons (81%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pistons (-1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (40%) · Hornets at 19¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Pistons81¢Hornets19¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$166.71

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 19¢

-60% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons81%

Hornets19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,618

Combined PnL-$430.88

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,713

Combined PnL+$264.17

Hornets — 40%Pistons — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 48.9¢	$5.1K	$4.6K	-$449.16	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
TA takeormake	Pistonsavg 66.6¢	$542.55	$659.75	+$117.2	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
AN Anon455	Pistonsavg 46.9¢	$286.98	$388.53	+$101.55	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Hornetsavg 34¢	$248.71	$267	+$18.29	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Pistonsavg 47.7¢	$136.71	$182.13	+$45.42	49% 559-583 (1142)
HRTradingARB<$100	Pistonsavg 68¢	$56.16	$48.82	-$7.34	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 68¢	$29.75	$27.78	-$1.97
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 45.8¢	$26.41	$21.03	-$5.37

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$5,063.83

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$449.16

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

takeormake

Pistons

Invested

$542.55

Value

$659.75

PnL

+$117.2

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Anon455

Pistons

Invested

$286.98

Value

$388.53

PnL

+$101.55

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

BullishBarbCTR

Hornets

Invested

$248.71

Value

$267

PnL

+$18.29

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Pistons

Invested

$136.71

Value

$182.13

PnL

+$45.42

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

HRTradingARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$56.16

Value

$48.82

PnL

-$7.34

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Both legs:

Pistons$29.7568¢-$1.97

Hornets$26.4145.8¢-$5.37

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.8%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$380.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

480.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.