Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Pistons (92%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hornets (-2.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (22%) · Hornets at 8.0¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Hornets8¢Pistons92¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 22%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$540.86

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 8¢

-82% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets8%

Pistons92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,532

Combined PnL+$703.88

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares7,420

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Pistons — 78%Hornets — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Pistonsavg 60¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$255.83	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
TR trabaCTR	Hornetsavg 45.3¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$864.2	13% 19-126 (145)
GA gagarin59CTR	Hornetsavg 40¢	$1.1K	$746.97	-$380.53	52% 657-608 (1265)
AN Anon455	Pistonsavg 46.1¢	$463.23	$739.24	+$276.01	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Pistonsavg 48.3¢	$161.6	$245.74	+$84.14	49% 559-583 (1142)
BU BullishBarb	Pistonsavg 51.9¢	$70.05	$120.83	+$50.78	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
TA takeormake<$100	Pistonsavg 67¢	$72.35	$97.19	+$24.84	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Pistonsavg 61¢	$19.52	$27.52	+$8	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
HRTrading<$100	Pistonsavg 54¢	$11.88	$16.17	+$4.29	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

HomeRunHazard

Pistons

Invested

$1,137

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$255.83

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

trabaCTR

Hornets

Invested

$2,083.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$864.2

Record

13%

19-126 (145)

gagarin59CTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,127.5

Value

$746.97

PnL

-$380.53

Record

52%

657-608 (1265)

Anon455

Pistons

Invested

$463.23

Value

$739.24

PnL

+$276.01

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Pistons

Invested

$161.6

Value

$245.74

PnL

+$84.14

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

BullishBarb

Pistons

Invested

$70.05

Value

$120.83

PnL

+$50.78

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

takeormake<$100

Pistons

Invested

$72.35

Value

$97.19

PnL

+$24.84

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

justaluckydude<$100

Pistons

Invested

$19.52

Value

$27.52

PnL

+$8

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

HRTrading<$100

Pistons

Invested

$11.88

Value

$16.17

PnL

+$4.29

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.