Hornets vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 108.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$5.3K
$774.16
48.7¢ → 97.5¢
+100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Underavg 49.3¢ | $1.9K | $2.4K | +$521.06 | 50% 2466-2457 (4923) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 47.5¢ | $1.4K | $2.1K | +$314.34 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $565.8 | $455.1 | -$110.7 | 52% 318-288 (606) |
FO Forecastication2 | Underavg 50¢ | $264.5 | $333.27 | +$68.77 | 50% 6816-6831 (13647) |
 TheOneto3CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $74.34 | $55.03 | -$19.31 | 51% 458-439 (897) |
Invested
$1,871
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$521.06
Record
50%
2466-2457 (4923)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,425
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$314.34
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$565.8
Value
$455.1
PnL
-$110.7
Record
52%
318-288 (606)
Invested
$264.5
Value
$333.27
PnL
+$68.77
Record
50%
6816-6831 (13647)
TheOneto3CTR<$100Invested
$74.34
Value
$55.03
PnL
-$19.31
Record
51%
458-439 (897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.