Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hornets vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 104.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 34¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$4.1K
-$51.21
48.2¢ → 34¢
-29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 34%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Underavg 48.3¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$119.68 | 50% 2463-2457 (4920) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 47.7¢ | $835 | $274.64 | -$133.63 | 58% 40808-29511 (70319) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 47.3¢ | $153.59 | $116.98 | -$36.62 | 52% 318-288 (606) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $67.08 | $71.37 | +$4.28 | 51% 196-189 (385) |
SL slimjoeCTR<$100 | Underavg 47.6¢ | $75.27 | $70.34 | -$4.93 | 51% 6452-6117 (12569) |
Invested
$3,421.12
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$119.68
Record
50%
2463-2457 (4920)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$835
Value
$274.64
PnL
-$133.63
Record
58%
40808-29511 (70319)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$153.59
Value
$116.98
PnL
-$36.62
Record
52%
318-288 (606)
Invested
$67.08
Value
$71.37
PnL
+$4.28
Record
51%
196-189 (385)
Invested
$75.27
Value
$70.34
PnL
-$4.93
Record
51%
6452-6117 (12569)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.