Hornets vs. Pistons

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (60%) · Pistons at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Hornets32¢Pistons68¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$10.42

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 68.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets32%

Pistons69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$277.31

Total Shares382

Combined PnL-$9.58

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$72.78

Total Shares232

Combined PnL-$0.84

Pistons — 60%Hornets — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hornetsavg 30.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$38.65	54% 3813-3274 (7087)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 30.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$34.97
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 68¢	$499.79	$503.47	+$3.67
CA Cannae	Pistonsavg 70¢	$214.73	$205.9	-$8.83	53% 15728-13898 (29626)
funnydayCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 32¢	$64	$63	-$1	50% 3892-3871 (7763)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Pistonsavg 68.7¢	$39.42	$40.1	+$0.19	58% 28094-20712 (48806)
SE sentrio<$100	Pistonsavg 69¢	$32.25	$31.32	-$0.93	50% 24855-24559 (49414)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 30¢	$9.62	$9.78	+$0.16	1% 4-285 (289)

takeormakeARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1,653.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$38.65

Record

54%

3813-3274 (7087)

Both legs:

Hornets$1,153.8430.6¢+$34.97

Pistons$499.7968¢+$3.67

Cannae

Pistons

Invested

$214.73

Value

$205.9

PnL

-$8.83

Record

53%

15728-13898 (29626)

funnydayCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$64

Value

$63

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3892-3871 (7763)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Pistons

Invested

$39.42

Value

$40.1

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

28094-20712 (48806)

sentrio<$100

Pistons

Invested

$32.25

Value

$31.32

PnL

-$0.93

Record

50%

24855-24559 (49414)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$9.62

Value

$9.78

PnL

+$0.16

Record

4-285 (289)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.