Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$1.7K
-$9
53.6¢ → 53.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 54¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$8.99 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Underavg 53¢ | $634.87 | $634.87 | +$0 | 54% 521-440 (961) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $10.39 | $10.16 | -$0.23 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $6.25 | $6.39 | +$0.14 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.33 | +$0.08 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
Invested
$1,034.75
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$8.99
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$634.87
Value
$634.87
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
521-440 (961)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10.39
Value
$10.16
PnL
-$0.23
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$6.39
PnL
+$0.14
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.33
PnL
+$0.08
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.