Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 213.5
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 44¢ · $302 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 100%
$301.97
$1.76
43¢ → 43.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 43¢ | $107.5 | $107.5 | +$0 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $75.25 | $76.13 | +$0.88 | 59% 3478-2368 (5846) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $60.37 | $60.93 | +$0.56 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.2¢ | $26.67 | $26.92 | +$0.25 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $15.29 | $15.29 | -$0 | 14% 77-472 (549) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $8.2 | $8.29 | +$0.1 | 21% 99-382 (481) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $6.94 | $6.91 | -$0.03 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$107.5
Value
$107.5
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$75.25
Value
$76.13
PnL
+$0.88
Record
59%
3478-2368 (5846)
Invested
$60.37
Value
$60.93
PnL
+$0.56
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$26.67
Value
$26.92
PnL
+$0.25
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
Invested
$15.29
Value
$15.29
PnL
-$0
Record
14%
77-472 (549)
Invested
$8.2
Value
$8.29
PnL
+$0.1
Record
21%
99-382 (481)
Invested
$6.94
Value
$6.91
PnL
-$0.03
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.