Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Celtics (55%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (25%) · Raptors at 46¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

Celtics55¢Raptors45¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$55.75

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 45.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics55%

Raptors46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares12,922

Combined PnL-$39.76

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,535

Combined PnL+$95.52

Raptors — 25%Celtics — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO ropetardCTR	Raptorsavg 45.8¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$38.74	73% 147-55 (202)
HO HomeRunHazard	Celticsavg 53.9¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$0.54	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Celticsavg 54¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9.51	53% 1811-1621 (3432)
HI hi774c	Celticsavg 55¢	$801.79	$867.39	+$65.6	14% 76-471 (547)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Celticsavg 54¢	$1.1K	$516.56	-$2.56	51% 455-429 (884)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 54¢	$278.94	$278.94	+$0
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 46.5¢	$240.18	$237.62	-$2.56
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 46.6¢	$633.42	$437.38	-$7.04	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 46.6¢	$305.3	$301.3	-$4
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 54.5¢	$137.35	$136.08	-$3.04
FO forecastication4	Celticsavg 54¢	$196.56	$216.58	+$20.02	18% 48-217 (265)
SE sentrio	Celticsavg 54¢	$140.7	$139.4	-$1.3	37% 346-578 (924)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Celticsavg 56¢	$42.67	$44.9	+$2.23	45% 263-319 (582)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 47¢	$69.28	$10.52	-$1.02	48% 668-712 (1380)

ropetardCTR

Raptors

Invested

$5,919.82

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$38.74

Record

73%

147-55 (202)

HomeRunHazard

Celtics

Invested

$3,109.62

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$0.54

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Celtics

Invested

$1,027.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.51

Record

53%

1811-1621 (3432)

hi774c

Celtics

Invested

$801.79

Value

$867.39

PnL

+$65.6

Record

14%

76-471 (547)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1,050.18

Value

$516.56

PnL

-$2.56

Record

51%

455-429 (884)

Both legs:

Celtics$278.9454¢+$0

Raptors$240.1846.5¢-$2.56

38791873984189ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$633.42

Value

$437.38

PnL

-$7.04

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

Both legs:

Raptors$305.346.6¢-$4

Celtics$137.3554.5¢-$3.04

forecastication4

Celtics

Invested

$196.56

Value

$216.58

PnL

+$20.02

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

sentrio

Celtics

Invested

$140.7

Value

$139.4

PnL

-$1.3

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

SnakeBall<$100

Celtics

Invested

$42.67

Value

$44.9

PnL

+$2.23

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$69.28

Value

$10.52

PnL

-$1.02

Record

48%

668-712 (1380)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.