Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Celtics (60%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Celtics vs. Raptors
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (75%) · Raptors at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
4
Raptors 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$1.13
40¢ → 40.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Medo3DCTR | Raptorsavg 40¢ | $974.22 | $974.22 | +$0 | 3% 7-201 (208) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Celticsavg 59.7¢ | $505.49 | $477.11 | -$28.38 | 47% 147-167 (314) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 59.7¢ | $332.46 | $328.68 | -$3.78 | |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 46.6¢ | $173.03 | $148.42 | -$24.6 | |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 40.8¢ | $83.42 | $82.01 | -$1.41 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 39¢ | $9.75 | $10 | +$0.25 | 48% 409-445 (854) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Celticsavg 59¢ | $3.55 | $3.58 | +$0.03 | 61% 891-567 (1458) |
Medo3DCTRInvested
$974.22
Value
$974.22
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
7-201 (208)
Invested
$505.49
Value
$477.11
PnL
-$28.38
Record
47%
147-167 (314)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.42
Value
$82.01
PnL
-$1.41
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
409-445 (854)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.58
PnL
+$0.03
Record
61%
891-567 (1458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.