Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$2.4K
-$37.75
47¢ → 45.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$57.4 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 53¢ | $295.37 | $306.51 | +$11.15 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 53¢ | $275.31 | $282.32 | +$8 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $15.03 | $15.53 | +$0.5 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $2.27 | $2.27 | +$0 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
Invested
$1,900.16
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$57.4
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$295.37
Value
$306.51
PnL
+$11.15
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
VeryLucky888Invested
$275.31
Value
$282.32
PnL
+$8
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$15.03
Value
$15.53
PnL
+$0.5
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
Invested
$2.27
Value
$2.27
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.