Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 218.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$10.95

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 51¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,095

Combined PnL+$10.95

Over1 trader

Total Value$925.14

Total Shares1,888

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	12% 3-22 (25)
HG hgawxCTR	Overavg 49¢	$925.14	$925.14	+$0	2% 1-43 (44)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50¢	$535.42	$546.13	+$10.71	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50¢	$12.19	$12.43	+$0.24	51% 256-247 (503)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

12%

3-22 (25)

hgawxCTR

Over

Invested

$925.14

Value

$925.14

PnL

+$0

Record

1-43 (44)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$535.42

Value

$546.13

PnL

+$10.71

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$12.19

Value

$12.43

PnL

+$0.24

Record

51%

256-247 (503)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.