Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 217.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 52¢ · $786 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$786.4
$3.9
49.8¢ → 51.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 48.1¢ | $380.09 | $407.05 | +$26.95 | 57% 3070-2308 (5378) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 52¢ | $296.4 | $276.45 | -$19.95 | 47% 147-166 (313) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $87.5 | $84.88 | -$2.63 | 60% 3439-2335 (5774) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $17.55 | $17.02 | -$0.53 | 16% 64-346 (410) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $0.96 | $1.01 | +$0.05 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
Invested
$380.09
Value
$407.05
PnL
+$26.95
Record
57%
3070-2308 (5378)
Invested
$296.4
Value
$276.45
PnL
-$19.95
Record
47%
147-166 (313)
Invested
$87.5
Value
$84.88
PnL
-$2.63
Record
60%
3439-2335 (5774)
Invested
$17.55
Value
$17.02
PnL
-$0.53
Record
16%
64-346 (410)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.96
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.