Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 13%
$6.4K
-$190.34
Research grade
AvoidOver at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Overavg 50.8¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$49.33 | 2% 5-300 (305) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 48.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | -$175.49 | 1% 1-78 (79) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 49.4¢ | $408.35 | $363.76 | -$44.59 | 49% 388-405 (793) |
IC ic4creamCTR | Underavg 48.3¢ | $157.78 | $158.4 | +$0.62 | 0% 0-255 (255) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Underavg 46.4¢ | $142.41 | $135.08 | -$7.33 | 48% 174-190 (364) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $118.07 | $105.21 | -$12.86 | 33% 72-144 (216) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $60.75 | $60.75 | +$0 | 48% 32-35 (67) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 46.7¢ | $63.33 | $32.39 | -$0.01 | 53% 87-77 (164) |
Invested
$3,509.46
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$49.33
Record
2%
5-300 (305)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$2,197.18
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$175.49
Record
1%
1-78 (79)
Invested
$408.35
Value
$363.76
PnL
-$44.59
Record
49%
388-405 (793)
Invested
$157.78
Value
$158.4
PnL
+$0.62
Record
0%
0-255 (255)
Invested
$142.41
Value
$135.08
PnL
-$7.33
Record
48%
174-190 (364)
Invested
$118.07
Value
$105.21
PnL
-$12.86
Record
33%
72-144 (216)
Invested
$60.75
Value
$60.75
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
32-35 (67)
Invested
$63.33
Value
$32.39
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
87-77 (164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.