Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 211.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 64¢ · $443 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$443.46
-$1.12
64¢ → 63.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $228.7 | $228.95 | +$0.25 | 52% 126-116 (242) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 36¢ | $144.03 | $146.24 | +$2.2 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 65¢ | $84.67 | $82.72 | -$1.95 | |
PU purplegatto | Overavg 64¢ | $174.77 | $173.41 | -$1.37 | 69% 2573-1165 (3738) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $29.08 | $22.28 | +$0.19 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $17.8 | $17.83 | +$0.03 | 49% 435-456 (891) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $0.97 | $1 | +$0.03 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$228.7
Value
$228.95
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
126-116 (242)
Both legs:
Invested
$174.77
Value
$173.41
PnL
-$1.37
Record
69%
2573-1165 (3738)
Invested
$29.08
Value
$22.28
PnL
+$0.19
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$17.83
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
435-456 (891)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.