Spread: 76ers (-2.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (71%) · Celtics at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
7
Celtics 71%
$4.1K
-$15.74
57.1¢ → 57.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | Celticsavg 57¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$0 | 7% 32-419 (451) |
 nigiri99CTR | 76ersavg 42.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$23.78 | 52% 119-111 (230) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Celticsavg 57¢ | $854.43 | $861.93 | +$7.49 | 57% 3062-2301 (5363) |
 VeryLucky888 | Celticsavg 57.6¢ | $640.83 | $640.26 | -$0.57 | 47% 197-220 (417) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Celticsavg 57¢ | $72.39 | $73.02 | +$0.63 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 42¢ | $31.37 | $31.74 | +$0.37 | 47% 145-163 (308) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Celticsavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $11.5 | +$0.1 | 53% 85-74 (159) |
Invested
$1,355.46
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$0
Record
7%
32-419 (451)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,133.42
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$23.78
Record
52%
119-111 (230)
Invested
$854.43
Value
$861.93
PnL
+$7.49
Record
57%
3062-2301 (5363)
VeryLucky888Invested
$640.83
Value
$640.26
PnL
-$0.57
Record
47%
197-220 (417)
Invested
$72.39
Value
$73.02
PnL
+$0.63
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
Invested
$31.37
Value
$31.74
PnL
+$0.37
Record
47%
145-163 (308)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$11.4
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
85-74 (159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.