Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Celtics (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (80%) · 76ers at 45¢ · $90 held · ends Nov 11

76ers45¢Celtics55¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 80%

Total Value

$90.18

Combined PnL

-$0.42

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers45%

Celtics55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$84.68

Total Shares189

Combined PnL-$0.42

Celtics1 trader

Total Value$5.5

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0

76ers — 80%Celtics — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 100076ers 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	76ersavg 44¢	$63.92	$63.92	-$0	57% 3062-2301 (5363)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$11.5	$11	-$0.5	48% 391-428 (819)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Celticsavg 55¢	$5.5	$5.5	+$0	21% 127-474 (601)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 44¢	$5.28	$5.4	+$0.12	47% 145-163 (308)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$4.4	$4.36	-$0.04	48% 674-721 (1395)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$63.92

Value

$63.92

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

3062-2301 (5363)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

391-428 (819)

ameisgoat11<$100

Celtics

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0

Record

21%

127-474 (601)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.12

Record

47%

145-163 (308)

38791873984189CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

674-721 (1395)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 100076ers 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.