Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (38%) · 76ers at 60¢ · $343 held · ends Nov 11

Celtics41¢76ers59¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 38%

Total Value

$342.69

Combined PnL

$1.29

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 59.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics41%

76ers60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers3 traders

Total Value$265.3

Total Shares439

Combined PnL+$0.85

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$77.4

Total Shares193

Combined PnL+$0.44

76ers — 38%Celtics — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	76ersavg 60¢	$218.4	$218.4	+$0	52% 128-119 (247)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Celticsavg 40¢	$55.38	$55.38	-$0	47% 149-168 (317)
38 38791873984189<$100	76ersavg 59¢	$33.87	$34.16	+$0.29	48% 939-1010 (1949)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 59¢	$20.37	$12.74	+$0.56	49% 440-464 (904)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Celticsavg 40¢	$10.4	$10.53	+$0.13	26% 234-653 (887)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Celticsavg 39¢	$8.19	$8.4	+$0.21	26% 234-672 (906)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Celticsavg 38¢	$1.9	$2	+$0.1	32% 184-398 (582)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Celticsavg 40¢	$1.09	$1.09	+$0	57% 3074-2312 (5386)

nigiri99

76ers

Invested

$218.4

Value

$218.4

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$55.38

Value

$55.38

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

38791873984189<$100

76ers

Invested

$33.87

Value

$34.16

PnL

+$0.29

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$20.37

Value

$12.74

PnL

+$0.56

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$10.4

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

26%

234-653 (887)

LimousinCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$8.19

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.21

Record

26%

234-672 (906)

sentrioCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.