Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 19.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 49¢ · $371 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$370.77
$96.77
33.9¢ → 49¢
+45% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4CTR | Noavg 33.3¢ | $187.84 | $276.24 | +$88.4 | 11% 24-189 (213) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $43.24 | $50.24 | +$7 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $19.5 | $20.45 | +$3.95 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $16.77 | $14.19 | -$2.58 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $9.65 | $9.65 | +$0 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
Invested
$187.84
Value
$276.24
PnL
+$88.4
Record
11%
24-189 (213)
Invested
$43.24
Value
$50.24
PnL
+$7
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$20.45
PnL
+$3.95
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$16.77
Value
$14.19
PnL
-$2.58
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Invested
$9.65
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$0
Record
85%
62-11 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.