Celtics vs. 76ers
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (29%) · Celtics at 52¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
7
Celtics 29%
$7.9K
-$113.43
52.3¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Celticsavg 52.3¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | -$31.81 | 51% 1784-1683 (3467) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | 76ersavg 51.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | -$33.52 | 50% 24138-24257 (48395) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | 76ersavg 51¢ | $613.48 | $589.42 | -$42.1 | 65% 2216-1213 (3429) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | 76ersavg 50.2¢ | $216.77 | $211.38 | -$5.39 | 54% 630-530 (1160) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 51.2¢ | $54.67 | $52.27 | -$1.6 | 47% 8799-9988 (18787) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 49¢ | $23.5 | $35.75 | +$0.14 | 53% 28419-25695 (54114) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Celticsavg 49.8¢ | $26.13 | $26.99 | +$0.86 | 48% 8401-8934 (17335) |
Invested
$5,845.81
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$31.81
Record
51%
1784-1683 (3467)
Invested
$1,107.43
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$33.52
Record
50%
24138-24257 (48395)
Invested
$613.48
Value
$589.42
PnL
-$42.1
Record
65%
2216-1213 (3429)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$216.77
Value
$211.38
PnL
-$5.39
Record
54%
630-530 (1160)
Invested
$54.67
Value
$52.27
PnL
-$1.6
Record
47%
8799-9988 (18787)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$35.75
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
28419-25695 (54114)
Invested
$26.13
Value
$26.99
PnL
+$0.86
Record
48%
8401-8934 (17335)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.